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| Match | League | KO | xG Total | Model Prob. | Best Odds | Tip | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia vs Scotland | UEFA Nations League | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 2.75 | Under 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| South Africa vs Guinea | Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 2.50 | Under 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| Kenya vs Eritrea | Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | N/A | Over 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| San Marino vs Finland | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 5.00 | Under 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 2.62 | Under 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| Iceland vs Estonia | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 4.33 | Under 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| Bulgaria vs Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 2.62 | Under 1.5 Goals | 90% |
| Match | League | KO | xG Total | Model Prob. | Best Odds | Tip | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia vs Scotland | UEFA Nations League | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.62 | Under 2.5 Goals | 90% |
| South Africa vs Guinea | Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.50 | Under 2.5 Goals | 90% |
| Kenya vs Eritrea | Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | N/A | Under 2.5 Goals | 80% |
| San Marino vs Finland | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 2.50 | Under 2.5 Goals | 90% |
| Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.50 | Under 2.5 Goals | 90% |
| Iceland vs Estonia | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 2.25 | Under 2.5 Goals | 90% |
| Bulgaria vs Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.53 | Under 2.5 Goals | 90% |
| Match | League | KO | xG Total | Model Prob. | Best Odds | Tip | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia vs Scotland | UEFA Nations League | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.22 | Under 3.5 Goals | 90% |
| South Africa vs Guinea | Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.17 | Under 3.5 Goals | 90% |
| Kenya vs Eritrea | Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | N/A | Under 3.5 Goals | 90% |
| San Marino vs Finland | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.62 | Under 3.5 Goals | 90% |
| Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.17 | Under 3.5 Goals | 90% |
| Iceland vs Estonia | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.50 | Under 3.5 Goals | 90% |
| Bulgaria vs Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.20 | Under 3.5 Goals | 90% |
| Match | League | KO | xG Total | Model Prob. | Best Odds | Tip | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia vs Scotland | UEFA Nations League | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.06 | Under 4.5 Goals | 80% |
| South Africa vs Guinea | Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.05 | Under 4.5 Goals | 80% |
| Kenya vs Eritrea | Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification | 13:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | N/A | Under 4.5 Goals | 80% |
| San Marino vs Finland | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.25 | Under 4.5 Goals | 80% |
| Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.05 | Under 4.5 Goals | 80% |
| Iceland vs Estonia | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.20 | Under 4.5 Goals | 80% |
| Bulgaria vs Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League | 16:00 | 2.50 | 53.6% | 1.05 | Under 4.5 Goals | 80% |
| # | Tipster | Tips | Won | Win Rate | ROI | Best Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AO
Ade Ola
🥇 Top Performer
|
312 | 237 | 76% | +22.3% | O/U 2.5 |
| 2 |
KD
Kola Data
🔥 7-Game Win Streak
|
248 | 173 | 69.9% | +17.6% | BTTS |
| 3 |
FM
FootModel
📈 Most Consistent
|
195 | 140 | 71.7% | +17.3% | 1X2 |
| 4 |
PQ
PoissonQ
🎯 Accuracy Specialist
|
141 | 97 | 68.7% | +13.4% | HT/FT |
| 5 |
SX
StatX
🛡️ Best Safety Record
|
164 | 67 | 40.8% | +3.7% | DC |
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | xG | xGA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCI Manchester City |
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | ARS Arsenal |
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 1.38 | 0.68 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Bri Brighton |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 1.31 | 1.55 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 4 | Bre Brentford |
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 1.64 | 1.40 | 9 | WDDDW |
| 5 | Lee Leeds |
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 1.94 | 2.33 | 9 | DWDDW |
| 6 | LIV Liverpool |
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 0.86 | 1.93 | 9 | WDWDD |
| 19 | Ful Fulham |
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.02 | 1.97 | 2 | DDLLL |
| 20 | TOT Tottenham |
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2.35 | 1.87 | 2 | LDDLL |
| View Full League Table → | ||||||||||||
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | xG | xGA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAR Barcelona |
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 | ATM Atletico Madrid |
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 1.65 | 0.71 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Rea Real Betis |
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 2.66 | 0.76 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 4 | RMA Real Madrid |
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 2.05 | 1.15 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 | Sev Sevilla |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 2.07 | 0.97 | 13 | LWWDL |
| 6 | Ala Alaves |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 11 | DLLWW |
| 19 | Val Valencia |
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1.97 | 1.25 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 | Mal Malaga |
7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 2.04 | 2.31 | 3 | LLDDL |
| View Full League Table → | ||||||||||||
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | xG | xGA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS AS Roma |
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 1.77 | 1.38 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Int Inter |
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 1.89 | 2.09 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Laz Lazio |
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 2.56 | 1.17 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Cag Cagliari |
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 1.94 | 2.09 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 | MIL AC Milan |
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 1.81 | 1.11 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 | Fro Frosinone |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.38 | 1.68 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 19 | Gen Genoa |
5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Ven Venezia |
5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1.87 | 0.94 | 0 | LLLLL |
| View Full League Table → | ||||||||||||
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | xG | xGA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bor Borussia Dortmund |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 2.04 | 1.47 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 | Bay Bayern München |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 | SC SC Freiburg |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 1.59 | 0.96 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 | FC FC Augsburg |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 1.77 | 1.70 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 | LEV Bayer Leverkusen |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 1.91 | 1.28 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 | FSV FSV Mainz 05 |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 1.36 | 2.39 | 7 | WLWD |
| 17 | Uni Union Berlin |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1.75 | 2.16 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 | Bor Borussia Mönchengladbach |
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1.00 | 1.93 | 0 | LLLL |
| View Full League Table → | ||||||||||||
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | xG | xGA | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MON Monaco |
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 0.93 | 1.96 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Lyo Lyon |
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.39 | 0.75 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 3 | Par Paris FC |
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 0.81 | 1.63 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 | LIL Lille |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.02 | 2.15 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 5 | Ren Rennes |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 1.05 | 2.10 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 6 | Par Paris Saint Germain |
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.70 | 0.81 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 17 | Mar Marseille |
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 2.03 | 1.89 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 18 | Le Le Havre |
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.22 | 0.71 | 2 | LDLDL |
| View Full League Table → | ||||||||||||
Every prediction on xGaura uses a Poisson distribution model calibrated with 38-match rolling averages, adjusted for home advantage, opponent Elo strength, and form weighting. The model outputs a full scoreline probability matrix, 1X2 probabilities, and expected goals for each fixture. Read the full methodology.
Football statistics have transformed how we understand the game. Where once a final score told the whole story, analysts, coaches, fans and bettors now have access to a rich layer of data that reveals exactly which teams are likely to win today — and why. At xGaura, we exist to make this data free, accessible and actionable for everyone who wants to make smarter decisions, whether that is understanding team strength, finding value in today's fixtures, or deciding which teams must be avoided.
The most significant development in football statistics over the last decade is expected goals (xG). Rather than counting goals scored, xG measures the quality of each shot by assigning a probability score between 0 and 1 based on factors including shot location, the angle to goal, the type of assist, and whether the shot was taken with the head or foot. A shot from six yards with a central angle might have an xG of 0.75, meaning it would be expected to result in a goal 75% of the time from that position.
Why does this matter? Because goals are subject to luck, reflex saves, and deflections. Over a season, teams tend to score roughly in line with their xG. Teams that consistently underperform their xG are likely to win more matches soon. Teams overperforming their xG must expect a correction. For bettors, spotting this gap between xG and actual goals scored is one of the most reliable ways to find today's value bets.
xGaura's mathematical predictions use the Poisson distribution model, a well-established statistical method used widely in sports analytics. The model takes each team's average goals scored and conceded over their most recent 38 matches, adjusts for home advantage and Elo rating strength, then calculates the probability of every possible scoreline. From this, we derive:
1X2 probabilities — the percentage chance of a home win, draw or away win. Over/under probabilities — the likelihood of the match producing more or fewer than 2.5 goals. BTTS probability — the chance that both teams score at least once. Most likely scorelines — the four highest-probability exact scores for each fixture.
The Poisson model is particularly effective for identifying matches where the bookmaker's implied odds are out of step with the mathematical probability. This forms the backbone of our Value Bet Index.
We focus exclusively on football and specifically on the top 5 European leagues. Our league tables include xG and xGA columns alongside traditional standings, giving you the data to see which teams are truly performing and which are over or under-achieving their expected results.
The Premier League is the most bet-upon league in the world and our primary coverage league. We provide full xG data, Poisson predictions, value bets and odds movement tracking for every Premier League fixture. Our La Liga coverage includes El Clasico head-to-head data and individual team xG profiles. Our Serie A section includes Derby della Madonnina and UCL qualification probability models. Bundesliga and Ligue 1 round out our top-five coverage with the same depth of statistical analysis.
The gap between casual bettors and serious sports investors comes down to process. Casual bettors pick teams based on reputation, recent results or gut feeling. Serious analysts use data to find edges — situations where the bookmaker's price implies a lower probability than the evidence suggests. xGaura is built for the latter approach.
Our ROI Calculator helps you understand the expected value of any bet before you place it. Our Odds Movement Monitor shows you when sharp money is moving a market, which is often a stronger signal than any model. Our Tipster Leaderboard tracks long-term performance with full transparency, so you can see whose methodology is delivering real, sustained returns.
Every tool on xGaura is entirely free. No subscription, no registration, no paywall. You must never pay to access football data that helps you win. We believe data-driven football analysis should be available to every fan, analyst and bettor who wants to understand which teams to back today — not locked behind premium tiers. Read our full methodology page to see exactly how the model works. If you follow prediction markets beyond the top 5 European leagues, our sister site SupaTips applies a similar data-first approach to a wider fixture list.
Everything you need to know about our data, tools, methodology and how to use football statistics to make better betting decisions. All questions answered by the xGaura team.
xGaura offers a comprehensive range of football statistics built around the modern analytical framework used by professional clubs. This includes expected goals (xG), expected goals against (xGA), possession, shots on target, form guides, head-to-head records, Poisson probabilities, Elo ratings, league standings, clean sheet rates, BTTS rates and over/under goal rates across all top 5 European leagues.
xGaura provides: match predictions, Poisson mathematical models, xG comparison panels, accumulator builders, a value bet index, odds movement monitor, ROI calculator, bankroll tracker and tipster leaderboard. All tools are 100% free with no login required.
Football statistics give fans, analysts and bettors deeper insight into team performance beyond the scoreline. Metrics like xG reveal how many goals a team deserved based on shot quality, helping to identify value in the betting market. Betting without data is pure gambling. Betting with data is evidence-based decision-making.
Predictions refresh daily by 08:00 UTC. League tables and form data update within two hours of each match. xG stats are processed overnight and available the following morning. Odds movement data updates near real-time throughout the day. Our Poisson model is recalibrated weekly using rolling 38-match windows.
To beat the bookmaker long-term, you need to find situations where their odds are mispriced — where the implied probability is lower than the true probability. This is value betting and it is only possible with data. xGaura's Value Bet Index quantifies the edge for every identified value bet, and our ROI Calculator helps you size stakes mathematically.
Start with the Value Bet Index for markets with a positive edge. Review the Poisson model probabilities to confirm your assessment. Check the xG comparison for match strength. Monitor odds movement for market signals. Finally, use the ROI Calculator to size your stake based on expected value.
CSV export is on our development roadmap. All data is currently available free on the website. If you have a specific data requirement, please contact us and we will do our best to help.
A developer API is in development. If you wish to license xGaura data for your own project, please contact us to discuss options. Unauthorised scraping is not permitted under our Terms of Use. All data is the property of Beta Web Analysis Limited.
No. xGaura is a football-only platform. We cover the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and UEFA competitions. We made a deliberate choice to specialise entirely in football so our models are deeper and more accurate than any generalist sports site. We do not cover any other sport and this will not change.