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xGaura — Football Statistical Intelligence

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78%
Prediction Accuracy
24
Matches Today
12K
Daily Visitors
6
Leagues Covered
9/12
Yesterday Won
76%
This Month
8.50
Best Acca Odds
7
Win Streak
2.18
Top xG Today
Predictions

Today's Tip Sheet — Mon 23 Mar

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Premier League — GW2918:30
Man City
xG avg: 2.41
WWDWW
vs
18:30
Newcastle
xG avg: 1.62
WLWDW
Match Result
Man City Win
1.72
best odds
Confidence
82%
La Liga — El Clasico20:00
Barcelona
xG avg: 2.65
WWWDW
vs
20:00
Real Madrid
xG avg: 2.38
WWLWD
Both Teams Score
BTTS — Yes
1.85
best odds
Confidence
77%
Serie A — Derby della Madonnina19:45
Inter Milan
xG avg: 2.19
WDWWW
vs
19:45
AC Milan
xG avg: 1.74
DWLDW
Over / Under
Over 2.5 Goals
2.10
best odds
Confidence
71%
Bundesliga — Der Klassiker15:30
Bayern Munich
xG avg: 2.88
WWWWD
vs
15:30
Dortmund
xG avg: 1.55
LWDLW
Asian Handicap
Bayern −1.5
1.95
best odds
Confidence
68%
Ligue 1 — Le Classique20:45
PSG
xG avg: 2.52
WWDWW
vs
20:45
Marseille
xG avg: 1.41
WDWLD
Correct Score
PSG 2 – 1
6.50
best odds
Confidence
56%
Champions League — R1621:00
Man United
xG avg: 1.32
LDWLW
vs
21:00
Juventus
xG avg: 1.78
WWDWL
Double Chance
Draw or Juve Win
1.60
best odds
Confidence
63%
xG Analysis

Statistical Preview

Arsenal vs ChelseaxG Comparison
2.18xG / game1.45
16.4Shots / game11.2
57%Possession43%
8.2Shots on target5.1
ArsenalChelsea
Arsenal GoalsLast 10 matches
3
2
4
1
2
3
2
1
4
2
10 matches agoavg 2.4 goals
Clnshts
4
BTTS%
60%
O2.5%
70%
Accumulator

Daily Acca Builder

4-Fold Power Acca
Mon 23 Mar — xGaura verified
9.40
Combined Odds
Man City vs Newcastle
Premier League — 18:30
Man City Win
1.72
Bayern vs Dortmund
Bundesliga — 15:30
Over 2.5 Goals
1.65
Inter vs AC Milan
Serie A — 19:45
BTTS — Yes
1.80
PSG vs Marseille
Ligue 1 — 20:45
PSG Win
1.45
Stake 1,000 returns
9,400
Model Confidence
71%
Value Betting

Value Bet Index — Today

All value bets →
What is a Value Bet?
A value bet exists when our model's probability estimate for an outcome is meaningfully higher than the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds. Edge % = (model probability − implied probability) x 100.
Man City vs Newcastle
Premier League — 18:30 today
Market
Man City Win
Book Odds
1.72
Model Prob.
64.2%
Implied Prob.
58.1%
Edge+6.1%
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
La Liga — 20:00 today
Market
BTTS Yes
Book Odds
1.85
Model Prob.
61.8%
Implied Prob.
54.1%
Edge+7.7%
Bayern vs Dortmund
Bundesliga — 15:30 today
Market
Over 2.5 Goals
Book Odds
1.65
Model Prob.
70.5%
Implied Prob.
60.6%
Edge+9.9%
Inter Milan vs AC Milan
Serie A — 19:45 today
Market
Inter Win
Book Odds
2.05
Model Prob.
55.4%
Implied Prob.
48.8%
Edge+6.6%
Market Intelligence

Odds Movement Monitor

Full tracker →
Man City vs Newcastle
Premier League — 18:30
Market Shift
Home Win
1.72
from 1.85
Draw
3.80
from 3.70
Away Win
5.20
from 4.90
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
La Liga — 20:00
Stable
Home Win
2.10
no change
Draw
3.40
no change
Away Win
3.20
from 3.40
Bayern vs Dortmund
Bundesliga — 15:30
Sharp Money
Home Win
1.55
from 1.68
Draw
4.50
from 4.20
Away Win
6.80
from 6.00
Betting Tools

ROI Calculator & Bankroll Tracker

Bet ROI Calculator
Calculate return on investment for any bet
Potential Return-
Net Profit-
Expected Value (EV)-
Est. ROI over N bets-
Monthly ROI Performance
xGaura verified tipster results — last 6 months
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Oct 2024 Mar 2025 (current)
6M ROI
+18.4%
Win Rate
76%
Best Month
Jan +24%
Worst Month
Dec −8%
Avg Odds
1.88
Total Tips
312
Community

Tipster Leaderboard

Full rankings →
# Tipster Tips Win Rate ROI Yield Streak Avg Odds
1
AO
Ade Ola
since Jan 2023
312 76% +18.4% 9.2% 7W 1.88
2
KD
Kola Data
since Mar 2023
248 72% +15.1% 7.8% 4W 1.92
3
FM
FootModel
since Jun 2023
195 70% +13.7% 6.9% 3W 1.95
4
SX
StatX
since Aug 2023
164 68% +11.2% 5.6% 2L 1.78
5
PQ
PoissonQ
since Sep 2023
141 65% +9.8% 4.9% 1W 1.84
Standings

Premier League Table

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDxGxGAPtsForm
1
ARS
Arsenal
2819546728+392.180.9562
WWDWW
2
MCI
Man City
2818646032+282.411.1260
WWWDW
3
LIV
Liverpool
2817836230+322.331.0559
DWWWD
4
CHE
Chelsea
2815585041+91.781.4450
WLWDW
5
MNU
Man United
2813694244−21.321.6845
LDWLW
6
TOT
Tottenham
2812794546−11.551.5843
WWLDW
18
SHU
Sheffield Utd
2845192265−430.882.2117
LLLDL
Champions League
Europa League
Relegation
Analysis

Match Reports & Data Analysis

All articles →
Premier League

Why Arsenal Are The Value Pick This Weekend

Gunners lead the xG table at 2.4 expected goals per home game. Their pressing intensity metrics place them top-3 across Europe's big five leagues this season.

Ade Ola — 3 hrs agoRead →
La Liga

El Clasico: BTTS Has Hit In 8 of Last 10 Meetings

Head-to-head xG trends and shot quality analysis for El Clasico. The statistical case for both teams scoring is compelling and historically verified.

Ade Ola — 6 hrs agoRead →
Methodology

Poisson Model: This Week's Best Value Bets

Using Poisson distribution and Elo ratings, we identified three markets where the model's implied probability significantly exceeds the bookmaker's line.

Ade Ola — 12 hrs agoRead →