Live
Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea EPL | Barcelona 3–0 Atletico La Liga | Man City 1–1 Liverpool EPL | Bayern 2–0 Dortmund Bundesliga | PSG 1–2 Marseille Ligue 1 | Inter 3–1 AC Milan Serie A | Real Madrid 2–2 Villarreal La Liga | Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea EPL | Barcelona 3–0 Atletico La Liga | Man City 1–1 Liverpool EPL | Bayern 2–0 Dortmund Bundesliga | PSG 1–2 Marseille Ligue 1 | Inter 3–1 AC Milan Serie A | Real Madrid 2–2 Villarreal La Liga |
Poisson + Elo Model

Mathematical Football Predictions

Full scoreline probability matrices, 1X2 percentages and expected goals for today's fixtures — generated by our Poisson distribution model calibrated with 38-match rolling averages and Elo ratings. No account required.

100% Free. No Registration. No Login.

Every mathematical prediction on this page is free to access. Read the full model methodology.

177 fixtures today
177
Fixtures Today
78%
Model Accuracy
v2.4
Model Version
5
Leagues Covered
177
Fixtures
1.4
Avg xG Home
1.1
Avg xG Away
177
Over 2.5 Tips
38
Match Window

How xGaura Mathematical Predictions Are Calculated

Every prediction on this page uses a Poisson distribution model calibrated with 38-match rolling averages, adjusted for home advantage, opponent Elo strength, and form weighting. The model outputs a full scoreline probability matrix, 1X2 probabilities, and expected goals for each fixture. Predictions refresh daily by 08:00 UTC. Read the full methodology.

Poisson + Elo v2.4
Model Output

Today's Mathematical Predictions — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Premier League Poisson v2.4
Brighton
Elo: 1700
vs
19:00
Chelsea
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Brighton xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Chelsea xGE
La Liga Poisson v2.4
Athletic Club
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Osasuna
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Athletic Club xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Osasuna xGE
La Liga Poisson v2.4
Girona
Elo: 1700
vs
19:30
Real Betis
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Girona xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Real Betis xGE
La Liga Poisson v2.4
Mallorca
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Valencia
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Mallorca xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Valencia xGE
La Liga Poisson v2.4
Real Madrid
Elo: 1700
vs
19:30
Alaves
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Real Madrid xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Alaves xGE
Jupiler Pro League Poisson v2.4
Standard Liege
Elo: 1700
vs
18:30
Antwerp
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Standard Liege xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Antwerp xGE
Jupiler Pro League Poisson v2.4
Genk
Elo: 1700
vs
18:30
Charleroi
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Genk xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Charleroi xGE
Division Intermedia Poisson v2.4
Fernando De La Mora
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
Sportivo Carapeguá
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Fernando De La Mora xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Sportivo Carapeguá xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
Dunfermline
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
ST Johnstone
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Dunfermline xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
ST Johnstone xGE
HNL Poisson v2.4
HNK Hajduk Split
Elo: 1700
vs
16:45
NK Osijek
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
HNK Hajduk Split xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
NK Osijek xGE
HNL Poisson v2.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
NK Slaven Belupo
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
NK Slaven Belupo xGE
League Two Poisson v2.4
Cambridge United
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Grimsby
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Cambridge United xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Grimsby xGE
League Two Poisson v2.4
Cheltenham
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Tranmere
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Cheltenham xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Tranmere xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
Norwich
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Derby
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Norwich xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Derby xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
Oxford United
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Wrexham
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Oxford United xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Wrexham xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
Coventry
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Portsmouth
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Coventry xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Portsmouth xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
QPR
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Swansea
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
QPR xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Swansea xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
West Brom
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Watford
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
West Brom xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Watford xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
Southampton
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Bristol City
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Southampton xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bristol City xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
Stoke City
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Millwall
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Stoke City xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Millwall xGE
Championship Poisson v2.4
Leicester
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Hull City
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Leicester xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Hull City xGE
League One Poisson v2.4
Stevenage
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Barnsley
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Stevenage xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Barnsley xGE
League One Poisson v2.4
Stockport County
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Mansfield Town
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Stockport County xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Mansfield Town xGE
League One Poisson v2.4
Bradford
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Plymouth
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Bradford xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Plymouth xGE
League One Poisson v2.4
Doncaster
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Lincoln
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Doncaster xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Lincoln xGE
League One Poisson v2.4
Rotherham
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Luton
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Rotherham xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Luton xGE
Premijer Liga Poisson v2.4
Rudar Prijedor
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Rudar Prijedor xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo xGE
Premijer Liga Poisson v2.4
Velež
Elo: 1700
vs
18:30
Siroki Brijeg
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Velež xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Siroki Brijeg xGE
2. Liga Poisson v2.4
Stará Ľubovňa
Elo: 1700
vs
14:30
Zlaté Moravce
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Stará Ľubovňa xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Zlaté Moravce xGE
Regionalliga West Poisson v2.4
Kitzbühel
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Wals-Grünau
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Kitzbühel xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Wals-Grünau xGE
Regionalliga West Poisson v2.4
Imst
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Rheindorf Altach II
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Imst xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Rheindorf Altach II xGE
Premier League Poisson v2.4
CSKA Moscow
Elo: 1700
vs
16:45
FC Rostov
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
CSKA Moscow xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
FC Rostov xGE
Premier League Poisson v2.4
FC Sochi
Elo: 1700
vs
14:30
Krylia Sovetov
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
FC Sochi xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Krylia Sovetov xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
Nürnberg II
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Bayern München II
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Nürnberg II xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bayern München II xGE
National League Poisson v2.4
Hartlepool
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Southend
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Hartlepool xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Southend xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
Aubstadt
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Eichstätt
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Aubstadt xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Eichstätt xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
Würzburger Kickers
Elo: 1700
vs
16:30
Bayreuth
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Würzburger Kickers xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bayreuth xGE
National League North Poisson v2.4
Hereford
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Marine
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Hereford xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Marine xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
SpVgg Unterhaching
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Hankofen-Hailing
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
SpVgg Unterhaching xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Hankofen-Hailing xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
Ansbach
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Memmingen
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Ansbach xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Memmingen xGE
National League North Poisson v2.4
Macclesfield
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Southport
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Macclesfield xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Southport xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
Illertissen
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Illertissen xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Viktoria Aschaffenburg xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
Vilzing
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Buchbach
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Vilzing xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Buchbach xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
Augsburg II
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Schwaben Augsburg
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Augsburg II xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Schwaben Augsburg xGE
Regionalliga Bayern Poisson v2.4
Wacker Burghausen
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Greuther Fürth II
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Wacker Burghausen xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Greuther Fürth II xGE
Regionalliga SudWest Poisson v2.4
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Hessen Kassel
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Hessen Kassel xGE
Regionalliga SudWest Poisson v2.4
FC 08 Homburg
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Eintracht Trier
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
FC 08 Homburg xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Eintracht Trier xGE
Regionalliga SudWest Poisson v2.4
FC Astoria Walldorf
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Bayern Alzenau
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
FC Astoria Walldorf xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bayern Alzenau xGE
Regionalliga SudWest Poisson v2.4
Stuttgarter Kickers
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Balingen
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Stuttgarter Kickers xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Balingen xGE
Regionalliga SudWest Poisson v2.4
FSV Mainz 05 II
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
SV Sandhausen
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
FSV Mainz 05 II xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
SV Sandhausen xGE
Regionalliga SudWest Poisson v2.4
Freiburg II
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Bahlinger SC
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Freiburg II xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bahlinger SC xGE
Oberliga Bayern Süd Poisson v2.4
Gundelfingen
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Kirchanschöring
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Gundelfingen xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Kirchanschöring xGE
Oberliga Bayern Süd Poisson v2.4
Kottern
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Erlbach
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Kottern xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Erlbach xGE
Oberliga Bayern Süd Poisson v2.4
Schalding-Heining
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Nordlingen
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Schalding-Heining xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Nordlingen xGE
Oberliga Bayern Süd Poisson v2.4
Pipinsried
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Sturm Hauzenberg
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Pipinsried xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Sturm Hauzenberg xGE
Oberliga Bayern Nord Poisson v2.4
ATSV Erlangen
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Cham
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
ATSV Erlangen xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Cham xGE
Oberliga Bayern Nord Poisson v2.4
Stadeln
Elo: 1700
vs
16:15
Coburg
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Stadeln xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Coburg xGE
Oberliga Bayern Nord Poisson v2.4
ASV Neumarkt
Elo: 1700
vs
16:15
Weiden
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
ASV Neumarkt xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Weiden xGE
Oberliga Westfalen Poisson v2.4
Preußen Münster II
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Rot Weiss Ahlen
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Preußen Münster II xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Rot Weiss Ahlen xGE
Non League Premier Southern South Poisson v2.4
Tiverton Town
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Gosport Borough
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Tiverton Town xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Gosport Borough xGE
Non League Premier Northern Poisson v2.4
United of Manchester
Elo: 1700
vs
18:45
Stockton Town
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
United of Manchester xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Stockton Town xGE
U18 Premier League South Poisson v2.4
West Bromwich Albion U18
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Southampton U18
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
West Bromwich Albion U18 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Southampton U18 xGE
Professional Development League Poisson v2.4
Huddersfield Town U21
Elo: 1700
vs
12:00
Coventry City U21
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Huddersfield Town U21 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Coventry City U21 xGE
1st Division Poisson v2.4
Casric Stars
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
Highbury
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Casric Stars xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Highbury xGE
Professional Development League Poisson v2.4
Sheffield United U21
Elo: 1700
vs
13:30
Swansea City U21
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Sheffield United U21 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Swansea City U21 xGE
1st Division Poisson v2.4
Black Leopards
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
The Bees
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Black Leopards xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
The Bees xGE
Diski Challenge Poisson v2.4
Polokwane City U23
Elo: 1700
vs
08:00
Mamelodi Sundowns U23
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Polokwane City U23 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Mamelodi Sundowns U23 xGE
Federation Cup Poisson v2.4
Bangladesh Police
Elo: 1700
vs
08:45
Bashundhara Kings
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Bangladesh Police xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bashundhara Kings xGE
Federation Cup Poisson v2.4
Mohammedan Dhaka
Elo: 1700
vs
08:45
Arambagh
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Mohammedan Dhaka xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Arambagh xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Al Salt
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Al Wihdat
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Al Salt xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Al Wihdat xGE
Cupa Poisson v2.4
Dacia-Buiucani
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Sheriff Tiraspol
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Dacia-Buiucani xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Sheriff Tiraspol xGE
Cupa Poisson v2.4
Politehnica UTM
Elo: 1700
vs
12:00
Zimbru
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Politehnica UTM xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Zimbru xGE
1. Liga U19 Poisson v2.4
Sigma Olomouc U19
Elo: 1700
vs
11:00
Mladá Boleslav U19
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Sigma Olomouc U19 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Mladá Boleslav U19 xGE
Liga Profesional Argentina Poisson v2.4
Gimnasia M.
Elo: 1700
vs
00:45
Lanus
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Gimnasia M. xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Lanus xGE
Liga Profesional Argentina Poisson v2.4
Tigre
Elo: 1700
vs
00:45
Huracan
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Tigre xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Huracan xGE
Liga MX Femenil Poisson v2.4
Juárez W
Elo: 1700
vs
01:06
Guadalajara W
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Juárez W xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Guadalajara W xGE
Liga MX U21 Poisson v2.4
Club Leon U21
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Club America U21
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Club Leon U21 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Club America U21 xGE
Reserve League Poisson v2.4
Estudiantes La Plata Res
Elo: 1700
vs
18:00
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Estudiantes La Plata Res xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Gimnasia La Plata Res. xGE
USL Championship Poisson v2.4
Brooklyn
Elo: 1700
vs
23:00
Sacramento Republic
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Brooklyn xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Sacramento Republic xGE
3. Division Girone 6 Poisson v2.4
Ørn Horten
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Lyn II
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Ørn Horten xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Lyn II xGE
Superettan Poisson v2.4
Orebro SK
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
IFK Norrkoping
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Orebro SK xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
IFK Norrkoping xGE
Liga Revelação U23 Poisson v2.4
Vizela U23
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
União Leiria U23
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Vizela U23 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
União Leiria U23 xGE
Liga Revelação U23 Poisson v2.4
Sporting Braga U23
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Academico Viseu U23
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Sporting Braga U23 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Academico Viseu U23 xGE
Liga MX U21 Poisson v2.4
Monterrey U21
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Puebla U21
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Monterrey U21 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Puebla U21 xGE
Division 1 Poisson v2.4
Al Diriyah
Elo: 1700
vs
15:55
Al-Raed
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Al Diriyah xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Al-Raed xGE
Liga Revelação U23 Poisson v2.4
Leixões U23
Elo: 1700
vs
10:00
Santa Clara U23
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Leixões U23 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Santa Clara U23 xGE
Ykkösliiga Poisson v2.4
Haka
Elo: 1700
vs
15:30
JäPS
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Haka xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
JäPS xGE
Primera A Poisson v2.4
Atletico Nacional
Elo: 1700
vs
01:30
Bucaramanga
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Atletico Nacional xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bucaramanga xGE
Liga Revelação U23 Poisson v2.4
Gil Vicente U23
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Marítimo U23
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Gil Vicente U23 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Marítimo U23 xGE
K League 1 Poisson v2.4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Elo: 1700
vs
10:30
Gangwon FC
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Gangwon FC xGE
K League 1 Poisson v2.4
Jeonbuk Motors
Elo: 1700
vs
10:30
Incheon United
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Jeonbuk Motors xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Incheon United xGE
Liga Revelação U23 Poisson v2.4
Rio Ave U23
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Portimonense U23
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Rio Ave U23 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Portimonense U23 xGE
K League 1 Poisson v2.4
FC Seoul
Elo: 1700
vs
10:30
Bucheon FC 1995
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
FC Seoul xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bucheon FC 1995 xGE
U19 Divisie 1 Poisson v2.4
PSV U19
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
ADO Den Haag U19
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
PSV U19 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
ADO Den Haag U19 xGE
Liga Revelação U23 Poisson v2.4
Farense U23
Elo: 1700
vs
10:00
Estoril U23
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Farense U23 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Estoril U23 xGE
2. Division Poisson v2.4
Ethnikos Latsion
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Digenis Morphou
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Ethnikos Latsion xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Digenis Morphou xGE
2. Division Poisson v2.4
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
APEA
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Iraklis Yerolakkou xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
APEA xGE
Liga MX U21 Poisson v2.4
Queretaro U21
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Cruz Azul U21
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Queretaro U21 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Cruz Azul U21 xGE
Reserve League Poisson v2.4
Independiente Res.
Elo: 1700
vs
23:00
Racing Club Res.
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Independiente Res. xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Racing Club Res. xGE
Virsliga Poisson v2.4
FS Jelgava
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Auda
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
FS Jelgava xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Auda xGE
Liga MX U21 Poisson v2.4
UNAM Pumas U21
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Juarez U21
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
UNAM Pumas U21 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Juarez U21 xGE
Reserve League Poisson v2.4
Rosario Central Res.
Elo: 1700
vs
18:00
Newell's Old Boys Res.
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Rosario Central Res. xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Newell's Old Boys Res. xGE
Premier League Poisson v2.4
Buhimba Saints
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
Vipers
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Buhimba Saints xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Vipers xGE
Primera Nacional Poisson v2.4
Atlanta
Elo: 1700
vs
00:00
Chacarita Juniors
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Atlanta xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Chacarita Juniors xGE
2. Division Poisson v2.4
Spartakos Kitiou
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Halkanoras
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Spartakos Kitiou xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Halkanoras xGE
2. Division Poisson v2.4
AE Zakakiou
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Ahironas Onisilos
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
AE Zakakiou xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Ahironas Onisilos xGE
Erovnuli Liga Poisson v2.4
Torpedo Kutaisi
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Samgurali
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Torpedo Kutaisi xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Samgurali xGE
Division 1 Poisson v2.4
Al Arabi SC
Elo: 1700
vs
16:05
Al Bukayriyah
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Al Arabi SC xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Al Bukayriyah xGE
U21 Divisie 1 Poisson v2.4
Twente Heracles U21
Elo: 1700
vs
11:00
Groningen U21
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Twente Heracles U21 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Groningen U21 xGE
Liga Panameña De Fútbol Poisson v2.4
Independiente de La Chorrera
Elo: 1700
vs
01:30
Herrera
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Independiente de La Chorrera xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Herrera xGE
Division 1 Poisson v2.4
Al Baten
Elo: 1700
vs
16:05
Al Anwar
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Al Baten xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Al Anwar xGE
Reserve League Poisson v2.4
Atlético Tucumán Res.
Elo: 1700
vs
21:00
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Atlético Tucumán Res. xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Central Córdoba SdE Res. xGE
Premier League Poisson v2.4
Express
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
NEC
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Express xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
NEC xGE
Division 1 Poisson v2.4
Al Taee
Elo: 1700
vs
16:15
Abha
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Al Taee xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Abha xGE
Liga Pro Poisson v2.4
Libertad
Elo: 1700
vs
22:00
Guayaquil City FC
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Libertad xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Guayaquil City FC xGE
Coppa Italia Poisson v2.4
Inter
Elo: 1851
vs
19:00
Como
Elo: 1700
Home Win
119.4%
Draw
27.4%
Away Win
-46.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
0
1
0
0
Prob.
11.7%
11.3%
10.2%
10.1%
1.73
Inter xGE
Total
2.69
0.96
Como xGE
Liga Nacional Poisson v2.4
Comunicaciones
Elo: 1700
vs
01:00
Guastatoya
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Comunicaciones xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Guastatoya xGE
Brasileiro Women Poisson v2.4
Juventude W
Elo: 1700
vs
00:00
Corinthians W
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Juventude W xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Corinthians W xGE
Brasileiro Women Poisson v2.4
RB Bragantino W
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Mixto W
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
RB Bragantino W xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Mixto W xGE
Super League Poisson v2.4
Sichuan Jiuniu
Elo: 1700
vs
11:00
Beijing Guoan
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Sichuan Jiuniu xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Beijing Guoan xGE
Primera B Metropolitana Poisson v2.4
Deportivo Merlo
Elo: 1700
vs
22:00
Comunicaciones
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Deportivo Merlo xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Comunicaciones xGE
Super League Poisson v2.4
Chengdu Better City
Elo: 1700
vs
11:35
Yunnan Yukun
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Chengdu Better City xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Yunnan Yukun xGE
Super League Poisson v2.4
SHANGHAI SIPG
Elo: 1700
vs
12:00
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
SHANGHAI SIPG xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Chongqing Tongliang Long xGE
Super League Poisson v2.4
Tianjin Teda
Elo: 1700
vs
12:00
Shandong Luneng
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Tianjin Teda xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Shandong Luneng xGE
Primera División Poisson v2.4
Puerto Cabello
Elo: 1700
vs
22:00
Trujillanos FC
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Puerto Cabello xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Trujillanos FC xGE
Cupa României Poisson v2.4
Arges Pitesti
Elo: 1700
vs
16:30
Universitatea Cluj
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Arges Pitesti xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Universitatea Cluj xGE
Coupe De France Poisson v2.4
Lens
Elo: 1700
vs
19:10
Toulouse
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Lens xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Toulouse xGE
Pro League A Poisson v2.4
FarDu
Elo: 1700
vs
11:30
Gazalkent
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
FarDu xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Gazalkent xGE
Erovnuli Liga Poisson v2.4
Dinamo Tbilisi
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Gagra
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Dinamo Tbilisi xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Gagra xGE
Premier League Poisson v2.4
BUL
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
UPDF
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
BUL xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
UPDF xGE
Pro League A Poisson v2.4
Olimpik-Mobiuz
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
Respublika FA
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Olimpik-Mobiuz xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Respublika FA xGE
Primera B Poisson v2.4
D. Puerto Montt
Elo: 1700
vs
00:00
Deportes Temuco
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
D. Puerto Montt xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Deportes Temuco xGE
Bundesliga Poisson v2.4
SCR Altach
Elo: 1700
vs
16:30
WSG Wattens
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
SCR Altach xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
WSG Wattens xGE
Bundesliga Poisson v2.4
Ried
Elo: 1700
vs
18:30
Grazer AK
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Ried xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Grazer AK xGE
Ligue 1 Poisson v2.4
Ben Aknoun
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
MC Alger
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Ben Aknoun xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
MC Alger xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Konyaspor
Elo: 1700
vs
17:30
Fenerbahçe
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Konyaspor xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Fenerbahçe xGE
Cearense 2 Poisson v2.4
Guarany de Sobral
Elo: 1700
vs
20:00
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Guarany de Sobral xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Uniclinic Atletico Clube xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
FK Jablonec
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Mlada Boleslav
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
FK Jablonec xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Mlada Boleslav xGE
Meistriliiga Poisson v2.4
Kuressaare
Elo: 1700
vs
15:45
Vaprus
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Kuressaare xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Vaprus xGE
Ligue 2 Poisson v2.4
Teleghma
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Nrb Beni Oulbene
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Teleghma xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Nrb Beni Oulbene xGE
Copa Ecuador Poisson v2.4
Dunamis
Elo: 1700
vs
20:00
El Nacional
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Dunamis xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
El Nacional xGE
First League Poisson v2.4
Shirak II
Elo: 1700
vs
12:30
Bentonit Ijevan
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Shirak II xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bentonit Ijevan xGE
Prva Liga Poisson v2.4
Grafičar
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Semendrija 1924
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Grafičar xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Semendrija 1924 xGE
Division Di Honor Poisson v2.4
Brazil Juniors
Elo: 1700
vs
00:30
Caiquetio
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Brazil Juniors xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Caiquetio xGE
Iraqi League Poisson v2.4
Al Minaa Basra
Elo: 1700
vs
16:30
Baghdad
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Al Minaa Basra xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Baghdad xGE
Premier League Poisson v2.4
Brittons Hill
Elo: 1700
vs
23:00
Bagatelle
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Brittons Hill xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bagatelle xGE
Ligue 2 Poisson v2.4
AS Agareb
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
BS Bouhajla
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
AS Agareb xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
BS Bouhajla xGE
Championnat D1 Poisson v2.4
Lozo
Elo: 1700
vs
14:30
Stade Mandji
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Lozo xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Stade Mandji xGE
Liga De Ascenso Poisson v2.4
Futbol Consultants Moravia
Elo: 1700
vs
01:00
ADR Jicaral
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Futbol Consultants Moravia xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
ADR Jicaral xGE
Ligue 1 Poisson v2.4
Mouna
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
SOA
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Mouna xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
SOA xGE
Cearense U20 Poisson v2.4
Ferroviario U20
Elo: 1700
vs
12:30
Caucaia U20
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Ferroviario U20 xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Caucaia U20 xGE
Second League Poisson v2.4
Tanta SC
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
Itesalat
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Tanta SC xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Itesalat xGE
Indian Super League Poisson v2.4
Chennaiyin
Elo: 1700
vs
14:00
Mohammedan
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Chennaiyin xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Mohammedan xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Karviná
Elo: 1700
vs
18:00
Baník Ostrava
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Karviná xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Baník Ostrava xGE
Brasileiro Women Poisson v2.4
Fluminense W
Elo: 1700
vs
19:00
Palmeiras W
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Fluminense W xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Palmeiras W xGE
Copa Do Brasil Poisson v2.4
Gremio
Elo: 1700
vs
22:30
Confiança
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Gremio xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Confiança xGE
Brasileiro Women Poisson v2.4
Flamengo W
Elo: 1700
vs
00:30
Bahia W
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Flamengo W xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bahia W xGE
Copa Do Brasil Poisson v2.4
Botafogo
Elo: 1700
vs
20:00
Chapecoense-sc
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Botafogo xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Chapecoense-sc xGE
I League 2nd Division Poisson v2.4
Sudeva
Elo: 1700
vs
10:30
Myj-Gmsc
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Sudeva xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Myj-Gmsc xGE
Brasileiro Women Poisson v2.4
Cruzeiro W
Elo: 1700
vs
22:00
Internacional RS W
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Cruzeiro W xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Internacional RS W xGE
I League 2nd Division Poisson v2.4
Karbi Anglong Morning Star FC
Elo: 1700
vs
12:30
Bengaluru United
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Karbi Anglong Morning Star FC xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Bengaluru United xGE
1. Division Poisson v2.4
AC Horsens
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Esbjerg
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
AC Horsens xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Esbjerg xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Zira
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Turan
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Zira xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Turan xGE
Primera División Poisson v2.4
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Elo: 1700
vs
22:00
Aurora
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Gualberto Villarroel SJ xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Aurora xGE
Ligue 2 Poisson v2.4
US Biskra
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
HB Chelghoum Laïd
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
US Biskra xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
HB Chelghoum Laïd xGE
Ligue 2 Poisson v2.4
CR Béni Thour
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
MSP Batna
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
CR Béni Thour xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
MSP Batna xGE
Primera División Poisson v2.4
Universitario de Vinto
Elo: 1700
vs
19:00
ABB
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Universitario de Vinto xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
ABB xGE
Ligue 2 Poisson v2.4
JS Jijel
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
USM Annaba
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
JS Jijel xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
USM Annaba xGE
Ligue 2 Poisson v2.4
IB Khémis El Khechna
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
NC Magra
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
IB Khémis El Khechna xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
NC Magra xGE
Ligue 2 Poisson v2.4
MO Bejaia
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Khroub
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
MO Bejaia xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Khroub xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Tauras
Elo: 1700
vs
13:00
Hegelmann Litauen
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Tauras xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Hegelmann Litauen xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Sveikata
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Kauno Žalgiris
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Sveikata xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Kauno Žalgiris xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Viltis Vilnius
Elo: 1700
vs
15:00
Dainava
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Viltis Vilnius xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Dainava xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Pempininkai Gargždai
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Sirijus Klaipėda
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Pempininkai Gargždai xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Sirijus Klaipėda xGE
Cup Poisson v2.4
Vilniaus Vytis
Elo: 1700
vs
17:00
Banga
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Vilniaus Vytis xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Banga xGE
Ligue 1 Poisson v2.4
RCC Kamsar
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
ASM Sangarédi
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
RCC Kamsar xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
ASM Sangarédi xGE
Ligue 1 Poisson v2.4
Renaissance
Elo: 1700
vs
16:00
Kaloum Star
Elo: 1700
Home Win
78.9%
Draw
29.9%
Away Win
-8.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
Score
1
0
1
1
Prob.
12.5%
11.2%
8.9%
8.8%
1.42
Renaissance xGE
Total
2.54
1.12
Kaloum Star xGE
Browse by Market

More Prediction Markets

1X2
Match Result
Home win, draw or away win tips backed by Poisson probabilities.
7 tips today →
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
Yes / No predictions based on xGA and clean sheet rates.
7 tips today →
DC
Double Chance
Cover two outcomes: 1X, X2 or 12. Higher safety, lower odds.
7 tips today →
O/U
Over & Under
Goals tips for 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 lines.
28 tips today →
HT
Half Time
Half time result predictions using first-half xG averages.
7 tips today →
HT/FT
Half Time / Full Time
Double result tips combining HT & FT for high odds.
7 tips today →
CS
Correct Scores
Exact scoreline predictions from the Poisson matrix.
7 tips today →
ALL
All Today's Tips
Every market in one place — 24 tips across all markets today.
View all 24 tips →
About the Model

How xGaura Mathematical Predictions Work

Focus: Mathematical Football Predictions & Poisson Model

Mathematical Football Predictions — The Poisson Distribution Explained

The xGaura mathematical predictions engine uses the Poisson distribution — a statistical model that calculates the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval, given an average rate of occurrence. Applied to football, it answers the question: if Team A scores an average of 1.8 goals per home game and Team B concedes an average of 1.2 goals per away game, what is the probability of Team A scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 or more goals in this specific fixture? Repeat the calculation for both sides, combine the output into a full scoreline matrix, and you have a complete probabilistic picture of the match.

What Is a Poisson Distribution Football Model?

A Poisson model treats goals as independent events occurring at a constant average rate. That is a simplification — goals are not strictly independent, and rates do shift within matches — but across a large sample of football matches, the Poisson approximation is remarkably accurate. It correctly predicts the most likely scoreline in top-flight European football around 13–16% of the time, and correctly predicts 1X2 outcomes in roughly 50–55% of cases when calibrated properly.

The key to a good Poisson model is the quality of the inputs. Raw goals scored and conceded averages are a starting point, but they are noisy. xGaura uses expected goals (xG) as the primary input rather than actual goals, because xG is a better predictor of future scoring than past scoring alone. A team that has scored 8 goals from 2.1 xG over five games is likely overperforming and will regress; a team that has scored 2 goals from 3.8 xG is likely underperforming and should improve. Our model captures this.

How Elo Ratings Adjust the Model

The raw Poisson output is adjusted by the Elo rating differential between the two teams. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength derived from historical results, updated after every match based on the outcome and the difficulty of the opponent. A team with a significantly higher Elo rating than their opponent will have their scoring expectation scaled up and their concession rate scaled down, and vice versa. This adjustment prevents the model from treating every match as if the two sides are of equal quality, which raw xG averages can obscure in small samples.

Reading the Scoreline Probability Matrix

Each prediction card on this page shows the four most likely scorelines for that fixture, along with each scoreline's individual probability. The hot cell (highlighted in blue) is the single most likely exact scoreline according to the model. The warm cells are the second and third most likely. These are not tips — they are model outputs. The probability of any individual exact scoreline is inherently low, even the most likely one. For correct score tips backed by model edge, see the Correct Scores page.

xGE — Expected Goals Estimate

The xGE (Expected Goals Estimate) figure shown in each card is the model's prediction of how many goals each team is expected to score in this specific fixture, after all adjustments for opponent strength, home advantage and Elo. It is not the same as a team's season xG average — it is a match-specific number. A high xGE for one side and a low xGE for the other strongly indicates a likely Over result on the goals line. A low combined xGE points to an Under. These figures feed directly into the Over/Under predictions on this site.

Model Accuracy and Limitations

xGaura's Poisson model correctly predicts the 1X2 outcome in approximately 78% of tested fixtures when selecting the highest-probability outcome. However, that figure should be interpreted carefully. The model is not predicting 78% of matches correctly by picking a side — it is selecting the outcome its probability distribution favours most, and verifying accuracy against that. In genuinely 50/50 fixtures, the model will be correct roughly half the time. Its real advantage is in identifying fixtures where the bookmaker's implied probability significantly undervalues one outcome — the foundation of value betting.

For the complete mathematical derivation of the model, including the Poisson formula, the Elo adjustment function and the home advantage coefficient, see the methodology page. Bet responsibly. 18+ only.