Frequently Asked Questions

xGaura publishes daily football predictions across seven betting markets: 1X2 match result, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Double Chance, Over/Under goals (1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 lines), Half Time result, HT/FT double result, and Correct Scores. Pre-built accumulators combining the day's highest-confidence selections are also published. All tips go live by 08:00 UTC each morning.

Yes. Every prediction, tip, calculator and statistical tool on xGaura is completely free. There is no subscription, no registration, no login and no paywall. Every page on this site is open to everyone. This will not change.

Today's predictions are published by 08:00 UTC each morning, before the day's earliest kick-off. Tomorrow's predictions are published by 20:00 UTC the night before, giving you time to compare odds and monitor market movement before the morning rush. See tomorrow's tips.

xGaura covers the top five European leagues: Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1. UEFA Champions League fixtures are also covered. We made a deliberate decision to focus exclusively on these competitions so our models are deeper and more accurate than a generalist site covering dozens of leagues. We do not cover any other sport.

Overall prediction accuracy across all markets stands at 78%. By market: 1X2 (74%), BTTS (76%), Double Chance (82%), Over/Under (77%), Half Time (71%). Double Chance has the highest win rate because each tip covers two of three possible outcomes. Half Time has the lowest because 45 minutes leaves less room for probability to overcome variance. Full historical performance is tracked on the tipster leaderboard.

No prediction is ever guaranteed. Football is inherently unpredictable and any model — however well-calibrated — will produce losing tips. What a data-driven model does is identify situations where the probability of an outcome is higher than the bookmaker's implied price. Over a large sample of such selections, the edge compounds into a positive return. Always use predictions as one input in your decision-making, never as a certainty. See our methodology page for the full explanation.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistical measure that quantifies the quality of a shot by assigning it a probability of resulting in a goal, based on factors including shot location, angle, assist type, and whether it was headed or taken with the foot. A shot from six yards centrally might have an xG of 0.75 — meaning it would be expected to result in a goal 75% of the time from that position. Summing all shots in a match gives the team's total xG for that game. Over a season, teams tend to score roughly in line with their accumulated xG. xG is a better predictor of future performance than goals scored because it removes the element of variance from finishing and goalkeeping.

xGaura provides: expected goals (xG), expected goals against (xGA), possession, shots on target, shots per game, form guides, head-to-head records, Poisson match probabilities, Elo ratings, league table standings with xG columns, clean sheet rates, BTTS rates, over/under goal rates, and live xG during matches. All statistics are available across the top five European leagues. See the xG Statistics page for the full database.

Predictions refresh daily by 08:00 UTC. League tables and form data update within two hours of each match completing. xG statistics are processed overnight and available the following morning. Live scores and live xG update continuously during matches. The Poisson model is recalibrated weekly using rolling 38-match windows for each team. Odds movement data updates throughout the day as bookmaker prices change.

An Elo rating is a measure of team strength derived from historical results and updated after every match. The system awards more Elo points for beating a strong opponent than a weak one, and penalises losses against weaker sides more heavily. xGaura uses Elo ratings as an adjustment factor in the Poisson model — a team with a significantly higher Elo than their opponent will have their expected scoring rate scaled up and their concession rate scaled down, regardless of recent form. This prevents the model from treating mismatched fixtures as if both teams are of equal quality.

The Poisson distribution is a statistical model that calculates the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval, given a known average rate. Applied to football, it takes each team's average goals scored and conceded (derived from xG rather than raw goals) and calculates the probability of every possible scoreline. These scoreline probabilities are then aggregated to produce 1X2 odds, over/under probabilities, BTTS rates and the most likely exact scores. xGaura uses a 38-match rolling window, adjusted for Elo ratings and home advantage, to calibrate the model. See the mathematical predictions page for today's full Poisson output.

Actual goals contain significant random variance — a shot hitting the post instead of going in, a goalkeeper making an exceptional save, a deflection off a defender. Over a small sample of matches, actual goals scored can diverge substantially from the true quality of chances created. xG removes this variance by measuring shot quality rather than outcomes. A team that creates 2.2 xG per game but scores only 1.4 goals is almost certainly underperforming and will improve. A team scoring 2.0 goals from 1.1 xG is overperforming and will regress. Using xG as the model input produces more stable and accurate probability estimates, particularly at the beginning of a season when sample sizes are small.

A value bet is any bet where the true probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. Edge % = (model probability − implied probability) × 100. A positive edge means the market is underpricing that outcome. xGaura identifies value bets by running the Poisson model on every market for every fixture, then comparing the model's probabilities against the best available bookmaker odds. Any market with a meaningful positive edge above our minimum threshold is flagged on the Value Bet Index.

The Half Time predictions use a dedicated first-half sub-model rather than a scaled-down version of the full-match model. The sub-model ingests each team's first-half xG average specifically — not their overall match xG — because the first 45 minutes has a distinct statistical fingerprint. Teams are more defensive early, goal rates are lower, and tactical approaches differ. Scaling a full-match model down by 50% would produce distorted probabilities for the HT market. The dedicated sub-model is calibrated specifically on first-half data and produces significantly more accurate HT probabilities as a result.

xGaura offers: an ROI & EV Calculator (expected value, net profit, Kelly stake sizing, implied probability converter, accumulator calculator, bankroll growth simulator), a Bankroll Tracker (log bets, track running ROI and win rate, stored in your browser), a Value Bet Index (daily markets with positive model edge), an Odds Movement Tracker (line movement and sharp money signals for today's fixtures), and the Tipster Leaderboard (transparent long-term performance tracking). All tools are 100% free.

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that calculates the optimal stake size for any bet with a positive expected edge: Full Kelly = edge / (odds − 1). In practice most professional bettors use a fraction of the full Kelly — typically 25% (quarter Kelly) — to reduce variance while preserving the mathematical advantage. Use xGaura's Kelly calculator by entering your bankroll, the decimal odds, and your model probability. The calculator returns both the full Kelly and fractional Kelly stake amounts. Never use Kelly sizing on bets with negative expected value.

The Bankroll Tracker stores all bet records in your browser's localStorage. No data is sent to xGaura's servers. Your bet log is private to your device and browser. It will persist across sessions on the same device and browser. Clearing your browser's site data, using incognito/private mode, or switching to a different browser will reset the tracker. There is no account login, no cloud sync, and no way for xGaura to access your records.

Odds movement reveals what the betting market collectively believes about a fixture as new information flows in. When odds shorten (decrease) on an outcome, money is being placed on that side — either public volume or sharp professional bettors. When odds drift (increase), the market is fading that outcome. A steam move is when multiple bookmakers shorten simultaneously and rapidly, indicating informed (sharp) money. A market shift is a slower drift driven by public money. The most powerful signal is reverse line movement — when an outcome's odds shorten despite most bets going on the other side, indicating sharp money overriding public sentiment. See the odds movement tracker for today's signals.

CSV export is on our development roadmap. A developer API is also in development. If you have a specific data requirement — for a research project, a personal model, or a commercial application — please contact us with details of your use case and we will do our best to help. Unauthorised scraping is not permitted under our Terms of Use. All data is the property of Beta Web Analysis Limited.

xGaura's match data, xG figures, and live scores are sourced from professional sports data providers. Our Poisson model, Elo ratings, probability calculations, value bet identification and all analytical outputs are proprietary work produced by Beta Web Analysis Limited. We do not disclose the specific data vendors we work with. Odds are aggregated from major European bookmakers at time of publication.

No. xGaura is a football-only platform. We cover the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and UEFA Champions League. We do not cover any other sport and this will not change. The depth of our models — xG sub-models, first-half Poisson calibration, Elo systems and rolling averages — is only possible because we focus entirely on football rather than spreading resources across multiple sports.

No. Absolutely not. No prediction service can guarantee winnings. Football is unpredictable by nature. A red card in the 5th minute, an injury to a key player, a goalkeeping error — any of these can swing the result of any match regardless of the model's probability. xGaura's predictions are for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are one input to consider, not a guaranteed outcome. Never bet money you cannot afford to lose. Never chase losses.

xGaura is intended for users aged 18 and over only. Our content relates to sports betting, which is an adult activity regulated in most jurisdictions. If you are under 18, or under the legal gambling age in your country, please do not use xGaura's betting-related content. The statistical content — xG data, league tables, match analysis — is general football information accessible to all ages.

Set a bankroll — a fixed amount kept separate from your living expenses — before placing any bets. Stake a consistent percentage of that bankroll per bet rather than a fixed amount, so your stakes adjust proportionally as your bankroll grows or shrinks. Most professional bettors stake between 1% and 5% per bet. Never increase stakes to chase losses. Use the Bankroll Tracker to monitor your performance over time and the ROI Calculator to understand the expected value of any bet before you place it. If gambling is causing you harm, seek support.

xGaura is a product of Beta Web Analysis Limited, a registered company. The site is built and maintained by a small team of football analysts, data scientists and developers. Our lead tipster and analyst is Ade Ola, whose full performance record is published transparently on the tipster leaderboard.

We believe data-driven football analysis should be accessible to every fan, analyst and bettor — not locked behind premium tiers. xGaura's mission is to make professional-grade statistical tools free and open. The site is supported by advertising and affiliate partnerships that allow us to keep all content and tools free for every visitor. We will never paywall our predictions, calculators or statistical data.

Use the contact page and select Bug Report or Feedback as the topic. Include as much detail as possible — which page, what browser, what the issue is, and ideally a screenshot if relevant. We respond to all messages within 24 hours. Feature suggestions are genuinely welcome and several current tools were built in response to user requests.